俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)六年來最大幅度萎縮

由雕龍文庫 分享時(shí)間：2024-03-10 20:20:26 收藏本文

Russia’s economy contracted by 4.6 per cent in thesecond quarter compared with the same period in2023, the largest drop in six years, marking thecountry’s first recession since the financial crisis in2009.

今年第二季度，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)同比萎縮4.6%，萎縮幅度為六年來最大，標(biāo)志著該國自2009年金融危機(jī)以來首次陷入衰退。

The Federal Statistics Office did not offer any detailswith its first estimate, but analysts said thepreliminary figure was likely to be revised downwardas sectoral statistics — which includes retail sales, industrial production and household incomes— pointed to an even steeper drop in real terms.

俄羅斯聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計(jì)局(Federal Statistics Office)未就其首個(gè)估計(jì)值提供任何細(xì)節(jié)。但分析師表示，這一初值很可能會被向下修正，原因是部門統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)(包括零售總額、工業(yè)產(chǎn)出和家庭收入)顯示，俄經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際萎縮幅度比這個(gè)數(shù)字還要大。

The 4.6 per cent contraction was slightly worse than analysts’ consensus estimate.Economists warned that the renewed slide in oil prices, which has pushed the rouble lower,would make a quick recovery even more unlikely.

4.6%的萎縮幅度比分析師的一致估計(jì)要略糟一些。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾警告說，油價(jià)的再次下跌將進(jìn)一步降低俄經(jīng)濟(jì)短期內(nèi)復(fù)蘇的可能性。油價(jià)的下跌已導(dǎo)致盧布出現(xiàn)貶值。

The figure comes after the first quarter of this year when the economy contracted by arelatively mild 2.2 per cent. Until June, the Russian government had been assuring the publicthat the worst of the current crisis was over as the rouble stabilised after undergoing a severedepreciation at the end of last year.

今年第一季度，俄經(jīng)濟(jì)也出現(xiàn)了萎縮，萎縮幅度相對適中，為2.2%。直到今年6月，俄政府還在向公眾保證，由于盧布匯率趨于穩(wěn)定(盧布曾在去年底遭遇嚴(yán)重貶值)，目前這輪危機(jī)的最嚴(yán)重時(shí)期已經(jīng)結(jié)束。

But the first drop in real incomes during president Vladimir Putin’s 15 years in power, whichcame about in December 2023, has proved a profound obstacle to overcome.

但事實(shí)證明，俄經(jīng)濟(jì)去年12月出現(xiàn)的實(shí)際收入下滑，可不是那么容易克服的一個(gè)困難。這次實(shí)際收入下滑是俄總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾渠京(Vladimir Putin) 15年掌權(quán)期間的首次。

According to figures published last month, the slide in consumer spending deepened in thesecond quarter with retail sales falling by 9.4 per cent in June. Growth in the industrial sector,which had been flat in the first three months of the year, also dropped by almost 5 per cent inthe second quarter.

上月發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年第二季度俄消費(fèi)者支出下滑幅度加大，6月份俄零售總額減少9.4%。今年第一季度保持不變的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出，在第二季度也下滑了近5%。

“With oil prices having fallen further over the past few months it remains too soon to speakabout a recovery, said Liza Ermolenko, an analyst with Capital Economics.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)分析師麗莎葉爾莫連科(Liza Ermolenko)表示：“考慮到過去幾個(gè)月油價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌，現(xiàn)在談復(fù)蘇還為時(shí)過早。

Economic growth already slowed to a crawl last year due to a long-running investment dearth.The blow dealt by the oil price drop was worsened by western sanctions imposed over Russia’srole in the Ukraine conflict, which blocks many Russian companies and banks from borrowingabroad.

由于缺乏長期投資，俄經(jīng)濟(jì)增速已在去年放緩至極低水平。除了油價(jià)暴跌造成的打擊，西方因俄在烏克蘭沖突中扮演的角色而對俄實(shí)施的制裁，也令俄經(jīng)濟(jì)雪上加霜。西方的制裁導(dǎo)致俄許多企業(yè)和銀行無法從境外獲得貸款。

Fears that this squeeze would trigger a broader systemic crisis receded when the roublestabilised around 50 to the US dollar this spring after a steep fall. It has since depreciated to 64to the US dollar — raising fresh concerns.

盧布兌美元匯率急劇下跌后于今年春天企穩(wěn)在1美元兌50盧布左右，這使得人們逐漸打消了這波壓力將引發(fā)更大范圍系統(tǒng)性危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂。但自那以來，盧布匯率已跌至1美元兌64盧布，從而引發(fā)了新的擔(dān)憂。

“This is by far the most severe crisis Russia has experienced, even if you compare it to 1998and 2008, and we have not seen the worst yet, said Irene Shvakman, director at McKinsey inMoscow. “The banking sector may turn out to be the weak link.

麥肯錫(McKinsey)駐莫斯科董事伊列涅什瓦克曼(Irene Shvakman)表示：“這無疑是俄經(jīng)歷過的最嚴(yán)重的危機(jī)，即使與1998年和2008年比也是如此，而且我們還沒有看到這輪危機(jī)的最嚴(yán)重階段。銀行業(yè)部門或許最終將是薄弱那一環(huán)。

Since last summer, the Russian government had promoted import substitution, hoping thatthe weak rouble would make it competitive again to manufacture goods which Russia haslargely imported since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But analysts said the contraction inindustrial production showed that any such positive effect had been shortlived.

自去年夏天起，俄政府就在推動進(jìn)口替代，寄望于疲軟的盧布能讓俄羅斯的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品重獲競爭力。自蘇聯(lián)解體以來，俄所用的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品基本靠進(jìn)口。不過，分析師表示，工業(yè)產(chǎn)出的萎縮證明，此舉帶來的任何積極影響都是短命的。

今年第二季度，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)同比萎縮4.6%，萎縮幅度為六年來最大，標(biāo)志著該國自2009年金融危機(jī)以來首次陷入衰退。

But the first drop in real incomes during president Vladimir Putin’s 15 years in power, whichcame about in December 2023, has proved a profound obstacle to overcome.

“With oil prices having fallen further over the past few months it remains too soon to speakabout a recovery, said Liza Ermolenko, an analyst with Capital Economics.